Thursday, April 12, 2012

Cognitive Bias

Retrievability Bias
I find myself using retrievability bias when I am driving in areas that I am not familiar with. This happens when I am traveling in an area I have only been in a few times. I try and pick out certain structures, houses, signs, or businesses. I use something in my memory to make a decision while driving and base my decision off that assumption.

Insensitivity to Sample Size
The best example I can think of where sample size had an effect on a past event is when my sister and I were at a bmx event at Woodward Camp. There were a couple of famous bmx bike riders there and the camp was giving away a signed bike for free. My sister and I both entered our names in the drawing. In order to win the bike, participants had to be present at the time of the drawing. I knew a lot of people were not going to stay that late so I convinced my mom to stay. The sample size was smaller because of everyone going home, therefore our chances of winning were greater. After drawing four names with none of the people present, my sisters name was drawn and we took the bike home with us that day.

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